By Milton Kirby | Richmond, VA | June 17, 2025

It’s a primary election day in Virginia, but the real showdown is already locked in. For the first time in the Commonwealth’s 235-year history, voters are guaranteed to elect a woman as governor this November, marking a significant milestone in Virginia’s political landscape.

On one side is Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, former CIA officer, and three-term

congresswoman known for her centrist policy stances and sharp national security credentials. On the other is Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican and the state’s current lieutenant governor, who made history in 2021 as the first woman of color elected to statewide office in Virginia.

The matchup between Spanberger and Earle-Sears will be one of the most closely watched races in the country, offering an early reading on how voters are reacting to President Donald Trump’s second term ahead of the 2026 midterms. While Spanberger and Earle-Sears ran unopposed in their respective primaries, the campaigns they’ve launched are already sharply defined—and fiercely competitive.

A Historic Race, A Stark Contrast

Spanberger, 45, brings a national profile and significant fundraising muscle to the race. Backed by over $14 million in campaign funds as of early June, she has unified the Democratic Party in Virginia around a platform focused on reproductive rights, economic relief, gun safety, and protecting the state’s large federal workforce—especially from cuts pushed by the Trump administration and Elon Musk.

“Virginia’s future depends on what we protect now,” Spanberger said Monday night at a rally at her alma mater, J.R. Tucker High School in Henrico County. “Our schools, our workers, our freedoms, our safety—these are not political slogans. These are what make us who we are.”

In a nod to her bipartisan image, Spanberger also pledged to “listen more than I speak” and build bridges across party lines. As part of her campaign rollout, she’s embarked on a “Span Virginia Bus Tour,” pledging to stop in 40 cities in eight days and appear with the eventual Democratic nominees for lieutenant governor and attorney general.

Earle-Sears, 61, is pitching herself as the natural continuation of the Youngkin administration, promising to preserve what she describes as “a prosperous path” for the state of Virginia.

A former Marine and Jamaican immigrant, Earle-Sears has a compelling personal story that resonates with many conservative and independent voters. She has emphasized “parents’ rights,” expanded school choice, and lower taxes as her campaign’s top issues while casting Spanberger as a rubber stamp for President Biden and the Democratic establishment.

“Abigail Spanberger represents the Biden status quo—higher prices, soft-on-crime policies, and a war on parents’ rights,” said Peyton Vogel, a spokesperson for the Earle-Sears campaign. “Winsome is building a movement powered by real Virginians who want to keep Virginia on the right track.”

Yet, questions linger among Republicans about the strength of Earle-Sears’ campaign. GOP strategists have quietly expressed concerns about her lack of a central message and a weak fundraising operation—her campaign had less than $3 million in cash on hand as of June 5.

“She has a great story and can be electrifying on the stump,” one Republican operative told NBC News. “But Spanberger has the money, the discipline, and the edge.”

Trump Looms Large

Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot, but his influence saturates the race.

Spanberger has positioned herself as a counterweight to Trump’s second-term agenda, especially his aggressive downsizing of the federal government—a major employer in Virginia. At a March event, she warned that cuts orchestrated by Trump and former DOGE director Elon Musk are threatening the livelihoods of thousands.

“We know that Virginia’s economy is tied to the work of people serving in federal agencies like the IRS, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Library of Congress,” Spanberger told supporters. “I will stand up for them and for the stability they bring to our state.”

More than 340,000 federal workers live in Virginia, many of whom are facing uncertainty amid ongoing lawsuits and agency reorganizations. While Virginia’s state revenue has remained stable through April, the long-term impact of Trump’s cuts on local economies is still unfolding.

Meanwhile, Earle-Sears has largely avoided commenting on the federal workforce issue, instead focusing on her allegiance to Youngkin-era policies. But Democrats have seized on the opportunity, portraying her as out of touch with one of the state’s largest and most politically engaged constituencies.

The Stakes Beyond the Governor’s Race

In addition to the governor’s mansion, Virginians will vote in November for lieutenant governor, attorney general, and all 100 seats in the House of Delegates. While the state Senate is not up for re-election, the Democrats currently control both legislative chambers. They also hold a slim 51-49 majority in the House, which Republicans hope to overturn.

The Democratic primary for lieutenant governor is crowded, with six candidates, including state Sens. Ghazala Hashmi and Aaron Rouse, former Richmond mayor Levar Stoney, and others. For attorney general, voters will choose between former delegate Jay Jones and Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor—both of whom have promised to “stand up to Trump” if elected.

The general election contest will pit the winner against incumbent Republican Jason Miyares, who has warned that Democrats will misuse the office to launch partisan attacks on Trump. “The law is a shield, not a sword,” said Miyares’ spokesperson, Alex Cofield.

Reproductive Rights, Guns, and Affordability

Spanberger’s campaign has focused heavily on access to abortion—a key issue for Virginia Democrats since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Virginia remains one of the last Southern states with access to abortion care until viability. Spanberger supports codifying those protections in state law.

She has also received the endorsement of Moms Demand Action, a national gun safety group, and pledged to pass laws banning high-capacity magazines, ghost guns, and assault-style weapons—measures previously vetoed by Gov. Youngkin.

“As a former law enforcement officer, I know gun violence prevention is pro-police,” she said in Alexandria during her endorsement event. “The fewer ghost guns on our streets, the safer our communities.”

Spanberger’s economic agenda includes proposals to tackle housing affordability, cap prescription drug prices, and lower energy costs—issues she argues will appeal to moderates and working-class voters.

Earle-Sears, meanwhile, has emphasized school reform, tax cuts, and opposition to what she calls “radical social policies.” Though she has avoided spelling out specific proposals, she has frequently invoked Youngkin’s record, hoping his popularity will buoy her bid.

A Defining Moment

For decades, Virginia’s off-year gubernatorial election has served as a bellwether for the national political climate. Since 1977, the party not in the White House has won 11 out of 13 times.

But political trends are shifting. Kamala Harris carried the state in 2024 by six points, and Democrats now hold a fragile edge in the urban and suburban regions that dominate voter turnout. Whether Spanberger can harness dissatisfaction with Trump’s federal cuts—and whether Earle-Sears can rekindle the energy that propelled Youngkin to victory in 2021—will define the final months of this campaign.

Regardless of the outcome, history is guaranteed. When Virginians head to the polls on November 4, they will elect the first female governor in the state’s history—a milestone long overdue.

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